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Big-Picture Outlook
Libya’s political landscape is changing at a dramatic pace. For the first time in years, a political settlement appears increasingly realistic, with significant progress towards institutional unification and an agreement between the country’s rival authorities.
Yet this progress presents a paradox: the closer Libya gets to a political settlement, the more unstable the situation may become. Those threatened by unification are running out of options and can be expected to intensify their efforts to preserve their influence. Libya may therefore have to endure a period of heightened instability before conditions begin to improve.
Major Events This Week
- United Nations Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL) head Hannah Tetteh gave a briefing to the United Nations Security Council (UNSC), in which she said that UNSMIL would continue to work to get the High Council of State (HCS) to approve the 4+4 Agreement, saying that the body was “unwilling” to be constructive in the process. Tetteh claimed some members of the body were willing to talk, but if unsuccessful UNSMIL would move ahead with another process. HCS head Mohammed Takala issued a statement demanding Tetteh retract her statement calling the HCS “unwilling” to the UNSC.
- The Central Bank of Libya (CBL) and National Oil Corporation (NOC) publicly clashed over total oil revenues, with the NOC claiming it had submitted $1.23 billion to the CBL for the first half of October, while the CBL stated it only received $361 million. Both sides have since accused each other of improperly handling or misinterpreting data, and calling for greater investigation into each other. This comes a day after Hannah Tetteh told the UNSC that around 30-50% of subsidized fuel is being smuggled.
- Flooding damaged much of downtown Tripoli, submerging entire streets and highways, forcing people to abandon their homes and cars. State rescue and aid services were near-non-existent.
Download The Full Report
Clients can use the link below to download the full report in PDF format, which expands on the stories mentioned and provides exclusive insights and reporting on the country’s major political and security issues.