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See where the Libyan dinar is heading
9.59
LYD per USD on the parallel market, Sep '26
50.1%
Parallel premium over the official rate
−45%
Parallel-market value lost by the dinar since Jan '21
Monthly
Model, data and analyst view updated
Everything you need to read the dinar
Everything you need to read the dinar
Forecasts, devaluation risk, oil and liquidity analysis and driver attribution in one interactive dashboard, with a written assessment from the Libya Desk analysts who built it.
Parallel-rate forecast
1, 3 and 6-month projections with 80% ranges taken from the model's own out-of-sample errors, plus a full record of past calls against outcomes.
Official devaluation risk
The probability of an official rate adjustment within six months, from a rule-based classifier calibrated on every adjustment since 2021.
Composite pressure index
Ten factors, from FX balance and money growth to political risk, scored monthly into a single read on depreciation pressure.
Oil sensitivity
Brent scenarios translated into net Central Bank oil receipts after fuel-import costs, and what each means for devaluation risk.
Dinar liquidity & reserves
Dinars injected versus absorbed, foreign assets, the FX deficit, household dollar sales and inflation, from Central Bank statements.
Driver attribution
Monthly and cumulative decomposition of every parallel-rate move, so you know why the dinar moved, not just that it did.
How the Monitor works
How the Monitor works
The Monitor is built on proprietary models developed by Libya Desk, not on a vendor feed. Three independent layers are re-estimated every month, and the signal is strongest when they agree.
Layer 1 — Forecast engine
A multi-horizon model of the parallel rate at 1, 3 and 6 months, re-estimated monthly and validated out of sample against a no-change benchmark. Forecast ranges come from the engine's own historical errors, not assumptions.
Layer 2 — Composite pressure index
Ten factors scored from −2 to +2 against proprietary calibrations: FX flows, the oil-revenue outlook, reserves, money supply, cash circulation, FX demand, the parallel premium, fiscal stance, political risk and inflation.
Layer 3 — Devaluation regime classifier
A rule-based classifier of official-adjustment risk, probability-calibrated against every official adjustment since January 2021, read as a regime signal rather than a point estimate.
Driver attribution
Every monthly move in the parallel rate is decomposed into monetary, FX-flow, political, fiscal and official-rate components, with the unexplained residual shown openly.
Built on data that is hard to assemble
Built on data that is hard to assemble
Libya's monetary data is fragmented. Central Bank statements arrive irregularly, sometimes covering several months in a single release, and the parallel rate trades in cash in Tripoli. Each month we compile, reconcile and back-fill Central Bank revenue and expenditure statements, banks' foreign-exchange use, inflation and economic bulletins, NOC production and official selling prices, refined-product prices and IMF monetary statistics, and pair them with Libya Desk's on-the-ground assessment of fiscal and political conditions.
69%
One-month direction accuracy, out of sample over 44 months
74%
Six-month direction accuracy, out of sample over 39 months
10
Pressure factors scored every month
3
Official adjustments since 2021, all in the calibration sample
Built for organisations with dinar exposure
Built for organisations with dinar exposure
If your revenues, costs, contracts or programme budgets touch the Libyan dinar, the gap between the official and parallel rate is a business risk. The Monitor puts a number on it.
Energy & oil services
Payment timing, dinar receivables and contract pricing in a market where oil receipts drive FX supply.
Banks, funds & traders
Exposure and counterparty risk around official adjustments and parallel-market swings.
Corporates in Libya
Budgeting, local-currency pricing and repatriation planning across a multi-rate system.
Development & diplomatic missions
Programme budgets, local salaries and procurement when the official rate tells only half the story.
Put the dinar call in front of your next decision
Put the dinar call in front of your next decision
The LYD Parallel Rate Monitor is available by subscription, on its own, as part of Libya Desk Plus, or with GIG All-Access. Tell us about your organisation and how you would use it, and an analyst will walk you through the current edition.
- Updated monthly
- Interactive dashboard for your team
- Direct line to the analysts behind the model