Operating in the Middle East and North Africa means navigating environments where formal institutions and informal power structures rarely align.
In these markets, political risk moves faster than public reporting and the difference between a sound decision and a costly one often comes down to the quality of information you rely on to support internal decision-making.
GIG's political risk and intelligence practice exists to close that gap.
We produce forward-looking analysis grounded in primary source reporting — not recycled from wire services or assembled from open-source databases alone.
Our analysts maintain active networks across the markets we cover, providing clients with insight that is timely, specific and calibrated to their operational context.
What we cover
Geopolitical Risk Assessments
Structured analysis of the political, regulatory and security risks shaping a market or sector. We assess the factors most likely to affect your operations (including government stability, institutional dynamics, armed actor activity, foreign power involvement) and translate them into clear risk frameworks that support decision-making at the executive and board level.
Scenario Planning
For clients who need to look beyond current conditions, we model the political and market disruptions most likely to unfold over a defined time horizon. Scenario planning engagements produce a set of clearly defined futures with probability weightings, early warning indicators and strategic implications that enable clients to stress-test their positions and build contingency into their planning.
Sanctions Tracking & Analysis
We monitor sanctions developments across UN, EU, US, and UK regimes with direct relevance to your market exposure. Our analysis goes beyond the designations themselves to assess the secondary implications, identify entities and relationships at risk of future designation and advise on the operational and reputational exposure created by sanctions developments in your jurisdictions of interest.
Country Risk Briefings
Regular, concise intelligence briefings on the political and security environment in a specific country or region. Calibrated to the client's sector and risk tolerance, these briefings provide the situational awareness needed to maintain operational confidence in a fast-moving environment. Available as one-off assessments or on a recurring basis.
Political Stakeholder Analysis
Identification and assessment of the political actors — formal and informal — whose decisions shape the environment in which you operate. We map relationships, motivations, and influence networks, providing clients with the contextual understanding needed to engage effectively and avoid missteps.
Election & Political Transition Monitoring
For clients with exposure to markets undergoing elections, leadership transitions, or constitutional change, we provide dedicated monitoring and analysis covering the likely outcomes, the actors positioned to gain or lose influence, and the downstream implications for commercial and regulatory conditions.
Conflict & Security Risk Analysis
Assessment of the armed actors, conflict dynamics, and security trends most relevant to your operational footprint. We cover both macro-level conflict dynamics and specific threats to personnel, assets, and supply chains — providing the ground-level security intelligence that generic risk ratings cannot supply.
Thematic Research
Deep-dive research on specific topics of strategic relevance — energy policy, migration dynamics, regional power competition, islamist movements, economic reform trajectories. Thematic research engagements are scoped collaboratively and delivered as structured reports, typically 15–30 pages, drawing on both primary source research and GIG's existing analytical base.
Who we work with
Our political risk and intelligence clients include commodity trading firms managing exposure to supply disruptions, energy companies assessing market entry or ongoing operational risk, financial institutions with portfolio exposure to MENA sovereigns and corporates, development finance institutions and multilateral organisations designing programmes in fragile states, and legal and advisory practices requiring political context for disputes and arbitration.
We work directly with clients and as a discreet research partner to larger consulting and risk advisory firms.
Our approach
Every political risk engagement begins with a precise scoping of the client's actual decision — not a generic country assessment, but an analysis calibrated to the specific question at hand.
We draw on GIG's primary source networks, our proprietary analytical database and the accumulated institutional knowledge of a team that has been covering these markets since 2018.
We do not produce generic reports that could have been written about any market. Every deliverable is specific to the client's context, produced to a defined timeline, and reviewed for accuracy before delivery.
Jurisdictions
GIG provides a full range of political risk and intelligence services in Libya, Tunisia, Algeria and Morocco.
An extended range of services is available in Iraq and Egypt.
Geopolitical risk assessments, thematic research, and country risk briefings are also available for Iran, Jordan, Syria, Oman, and GCC states.
For other markets, contact us to discuss coverage.