Global Insights Group is excited to launch the newly redesigned Iran Desk, alongside a complimentary new report.
The Sarnakh-e Iran Report aims to pull at the threads behind the headlines, providing clear-cut analysis and insight amid a constant stream of ever-changing news.
The report, designed to be broad resource for financial professionals and companies active in Mideast, examines the increased likelihood of a renewed Israeli-American offensive against Iran, how Tehran might respond, and the potential implications for global energy markets.
We are excited to enter this next phase of Iran Desk with you. If you have any questions or would like to speak with one of our analysts, please get in touch with us here.
Executive Summary
Gulf crude exports, excluding Iran, returned to their pre-war average in September, but the recovery rests on Gulf state tankers, U.S. convoys and ship-to-ship transfers that cost about five times more than before the war and would struggle under heavier attacks.
We assess that renewed war is likely within weeks, and that Iran’s revised doctrine would bring more damage than in previous rounds. The war is also likely to widen geographically through Iran-aligned groups, as attacks on Saudi Arabia from Yemen and Iraq already show.
Brent hovering around $115 reflects the risk of renewed fighting assuming current workarounds hold, and it does not reflect Tehran’s stated readiness to sustain disruption until 2029 without a deal with Washington.
Our calls
- Renewed war is likely within weeks. Netanyahu is likely to stay on as caretaker after an inconclusive vote, and the 3 November midterms will remove Washington’s main reason to restrain Israel. Israel would strike first, with a divided U.S. following, as last-ditch diplomacy has stalled.
- The next round would hit shipping harder. Iran’s doctrine is shifting gradually, with attacks on shipping across October doubling and moving to transfer zones and departure points. Expect attempts to disable tankers, pressure on ship-to-ship transfers off Oman and Fujairah, and Red Sea mining if the U.S. strikes the Houthis, leaving UAE, Iraqi, Kuwaiti and Saudi Red Sea exports most exposed.
- A short war would bring long disruption. A high-intensity round is likely to be short-lived, but it would return the region to grinding disruption. Short of a deal on its own terms, Tehran is willing to sustain disruption until 2029, but it has offered to reopen the strait within seven days if the blockade is lifted and military pressure eases, which gives markets a clear trigger to watch.
- Supply has recovered but the system is fragile. Gulf crude exports, excluding Iran, are back at pre-war levels, but vessel traffic is at a fraction of normal, leaving LNG and refined products largely shut in. Brent hovering around $115 reflects the risk of renewed fighting but not the risk of prolonged disruption or of strikes on Gulf energy infrastructure that would hit supply as well as shipping. With inventories at a decade low, Asian importers would bear the brunt, and Europe would feel it through diesel and gas.
- Escalation could spread beyond energy. Strikes on Iran’s power or telecoms would bring attacks on Gulf subsea cables and data centres, with the UAE the most exposed. A widespread campaign against Iran’s civilian infrastructure would remove all restraint, with oil potentially above $150 a barrel.
Download the full report
This report below is fully free-to-access, and goes into extensive detail about the recent political-security tensions in the country while breaking down each scenario in full.
