The LYD Parallel Rate Monitor is Libya Desk's proprietary model of the Libyan dinar. Each month it forecasts the parallel-market rate, estimates the probability of an official devaluation, and breaks down what is driving both, so organisations with dinar exposure can price, budget and time decisions on evidence rather than market rumour.
Subscriber view: forecast, devaluation risk and pressure index shown in full.
What's inside
Parallel-rate forecast1, 3 and 6-month projections with 80% ranges, plus a public record of past calls against outcomes.
Official devaluation riskThe probability of an official rate adjustment within six months.
Composite pressure indexTen factors, from FX flows and money growth to political risk, in one monthly read.
Oil sensitivityBrent scenarios translated into net Central Bank oil receipts after fuel-import costs.
Liquidity & reservesDinars injected versus absorbed, foreign assets, the FX deficit and inflation.
Driver attribution & analyst viewWhy the rate moved, and what Libya Desk's analysts expect next.
How it works
Three independent layers, re-estimated every month: a multi-horizon forecast engine validated out of sample, a ten-factor pressure index scored against proprietary calibrations, and a devaluation classifier calibrated on every official adjustment since 2021. They run on data that is hard to assemble: irregular Central Bank revenue, expenditure and FX statements, Tripoli cash-market rates, NOC production and pricing, and IMF monetary statistics, reconciled monthly and paired with Libya Desk's on-the-ground political and fiscal assessment.
69%1-month direction accuracy, out of sample (44 months)
74%6-month direction accuracy, out of sample (39 months)
MonthlyModel, data and analyst view updated
Who uses it
Energy and oil-services companies managing dinar receivables, banks, funds and traders with Libya exposure, corporates budgeting and repatriating across Libya's multi-rate system, and development and diplomatic missions planning local-currency programmes.
Access the full dashboard
Available by subscription to the LYD Parallel Rate Monitor, on its own or as part of Libya Desk Plus or GIG All-Access. Tell us about your organisation and an analyst will walk you through the current edition.
