Market Outlook
Libya’s energy sector heads into November with output holding at 1.4 million bpd, as NOC data shows the country produced 43.4 million barrels in October. Production recovered from September’s average of around 1.34 million bpd, which the Sharara closure had pulled down, while closures on the Hamada system had a limited impact.
The closures came from armed groups seeking leverage over the GNU and payments from the NOC, while the political track moved quickly. Agila Saleh was replaced as Speaker of the House of Representatives, the Central Bank of Libya changed leadership, and the NOC’s subsidiary reshuffle reached the Arabian Gulf Oil Company (AGOCO), pushing out formerly influential figures. Gains in gas and refining, the Turkey maritime agreement, and renewed Gulf interest in Libyan assets improve the medium-term picture.
Key Highlights
- The Dabaiba-Haftar track moved quickly in October. Agila Saleh was replaced as HoR Speaker, the CBL governor was changed in a move coordinated between Saddam Haftar and Ibrahim Dabaiba, and the NOC’s subsidiary reshuffle reached the AGOCO.
- An audit of the AGOCO found its board corrupt, and a committee led by Fadl al-Mismari replaced it. LIBYA DESK sources flag possible reshuffles at Mellitah, Zueitina and Harouge.
- The Hamada pipeline system was closed three times in late October. The latest closure, by an individual linked to the PFG seeking payment from the NOC, put around 15,000 bpd at risk and remained in place at publication.
- The NOC and the CBL clashed over oil revenue figures shortly before the governor’s removal. The CBL’s own data shows foreign currency outflows exceeding oil revenue by $4.7 billion in the first nine months of the year.
- The HoR ratified the 2019 maritime agreement with Turkey on 20 October, opening the way for a Turkey-LNA partnership. Egypt, Greece and the EU reject it, raising legal risk for acreage south of Crete.
- Sirte Oil restarted the Brega refinery after more than nine years offline. Brega’s gas processing unit, the al-Rashad field, and Eni’s Bouri project added new and recovered gas to the network.
- Reuters reported that ADNOC’s XRG is in talks to buy into Eni’s Libyan operations. Meanwhile, the Hormuz disruption pushed new buyers such as South Africa and Pakistan towards Libyan crude.
- Offshore work is moving on the blocks awarded in February. LIBYA DESK sources say seismic surveys are under way in Block O7, where Turkey’s TPAO holds 40% alongside Repsol and MOL.
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