This special brief addresses the following key questions:
- How wartime conditions are shaping Iran’s leadership succession and consolidating the security establishment.
- The effectiveness and limitations of the current air campaign against Iranian military infrastructure.
- Iran’s dual strategy of shock escalation and economic attrition, particularly through pressure on maritime traffic in the Strait of Hormuz.
- Scenario analysis for regional escalation, including risks to Gulf energy infrastructure, aviation hubs and maritime trade.
- Conditions under which a ceasefire could emerge, and why a prolonged period of volatile escalation remains the most likely trajectory.
If you would like to discuss any of the findings or explore additional briefings on Iran, Gulf security dynamics or energy market risks, please feel free to contact us.
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The full report is available for Clients to download. It includes extended analysis, structural drivers and field-sourced implications to guide decision-making.
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