The following analysis draws on source inquiries and ongoing research conducted by our team across the region, and forms part of our broader monitoring of the Iran-Israel-U.S. conflict and its implications for global markets.
Scenario outlook
Base case
Chronic instability
40%
- Oil $80–120; persistent premium
- Defense & maritime outperform
- CB rate cuts delayed
- GCC at discount; no capital flight
Worst case
Stagflation shock
35%
- Oil $110–180; supply shock
- Gulf energy offline
- Credit spreads widen sharply
- GCC SWF forced deleveraging
Best case
Negotiated deal
25%
- Oil falls to $60–90
- Risk-on rally; rate cuts repriced
- GCC recovery slow to 2027
- Qatari gas contracts repriced
Oil price trajectory by scenario
Best (25%)
Base (40%)
Worst (35%)
Range band
Midpoint lines show central trajectory within each scenario range. Shaded bands show full price range per the report. Source: GIG Special Brief, 26 March 2026.
Executive Summary
- Markets must now price instability continuously, not periodically. The Iran conflict has shifted from an episodic risk to a structural baseline.
- The report examines three distinct pathways:
- Base case (40%): chronic instability without systemic breakdown
- Worst case (35%): uncontrolled escalation and stagflationary global shock
- Best case (25%): partial political reset and negotiated de-escalation
