This is a special edition of our Iran Monitor Report, focusing on the recent unprecedented arrests of political and energy officials in Iraq. This report is fully free-to-access. The goal of this investigation is to both dispel misconceptions around Operation "Dawn Strike", and to inform readers about the goals of the anti-corruption drive and what it could mean for Iraq's political and business environment in the future. If you would like to see future Iraq coverage, or have further questions about political developments in Iraq, you can contact us with the link below.
Executive Summary
The arrest of several prominent political and energy officials in Baghdad’s Greenzone, during the early hours of June 28th, had come as a shock to both Iraqi and international observers. Initial confusion had surrounded the arrests, with Western observers initially claiming that the raids were an effort by the new Prime Minister, Ali al-Zaidi, to contain Iranian influence in Iraq.
However, further review indicates that the operation was not designed to counter Iranian-backed political parties and security forces, but to dismantle a prominent corruption and patronage network that had become large and over-exposed. Findings indicate that the arrests have focused mainly on the Baiji Refinery and Deputy Minister of Oil for Refining Affairs Adnan al-Jumaili.
Al-Jumaili, a long time employee and previous director of the Baiji refinery, exploited the reconstruction of the complex after its liberation from the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS), placing family members in positions of power, influencing contracts, and offering employment in exchange for political support.
Eventually, al-Jumaili’s political and financial networks coming out of the Baiji refinery became too big to ignore, and Prime Minister al-Zaidi, a relative newcomer to Iraqi politics with no public profile, likely targeted al-Jumaili because it was relatively easy to put together a case.
Additionally, the cross-sectarian nature of the arrests meant that al-Zaidi has avoided any blowback from Iraqi political factions like the Iran-aligned Coordination Framework. The arrests have been popular among the population, and have improved his and the Iraqi government's public image, both domestically and internationally.
Despite the unprecedented nature of these arrests, their reach has so far stayed limited. Al-Jumaili's network was likely wide-ranging, benefitting multiple major political factions, yet the investigation has avoided any high-profile arrests to date. How far it goes from here will likely be determined by al-Zaidi.
The new head of government is likely to avoid escalation, keeping arrests confined to second- and third-tier political actors. Should al-Zaidi go further, it would mark an unprecedented boost for good governance, but at the risk of dangerously provoking powerful political factions.
Download the full report
This report below is fully free-to-access, and goes into extensive detail about the various actors, assets, and goals surrounding Operation "Dawn Strike", as well as potential future scenarios.
This report was developed in partnership with Karam Hussein, a Security Risk Management Advisor and Analyst specializing in Iraqi affairs, with over nine years of experience operating in high-risk environments.
Hussein examines the geopolitical and security landscape of Iraq, with a particular focus on conflict dynamics, armed actors, and their implications for national and regional stability.
He has a Master’s degree in Conflict, Peace and Security from the Universitat Oberta de Catalunya.