The MoU signed between Iran and the U.S. on 17 June unravelled in less than a month. Iran viewed Oman's southern shipping route as a direct breach of the interim deal and targeted three tankers using it in the Strait of Hormuz on 6-7 July. A day later, President Trump declared the MoU "over," and Tehran confirmed its suspension on 18 July.

Both sides have accused the other of never intending to honour the deal, with Tehran arguing Washington only signed to get oil flowing again.

The MoU's failure has hardened Iran's posture. Tehran is now set on securing its footing in the Strait of Hormuz through a bilateral deal with Oman granting it control over the entrance and part of the exit route, plus fees.

This hard bargain, coupled with demands for concrete American steps — including oil waivers, an end to the naval blockade, a halt to regional conflicts — has stalled resolution of this second round of conflict. Tehran's goal remains a return to the MoU with the Hormuz deal annexed to it, having first taught Washington there is no military solution to the Gulf impasse.

Domestically, Iran shows strain but no fracture. Militancy has resurfaced in Kurdish and Baluch regions, and the judiciary has sustained a rapid pace of executions to deter unrest, holding so far despite the risk of backfire.

The MoU's brief reopening brought a real, short-lived economic boost, before the renewed U.S. naval blockade erased most gains and the rial surrendered its recovery. Despite intensifying politicking, the risk of rupture between Iran's pragmatist executive branch and the hardline bloc remains limited: both agree force is the only path to bringing Washington to terms, differing only on dosage and duration.

Militarily, this round was largely confined to southern Iran and consequently proved less punishing on Iran's population than the first. Depleted munitions stocks are constraining the U.S. campaign, while Tehran's activation of the Houthis and Iraq's Popular Mobilisation Forces (PMF) adds muscle to its standoff with Washington. Together, these point toward a likely return to the MoU, almost certainly an MoU+ leaving Iran with genuine gains. What is less clear is whether that likely return holds or collapses again within months over recurring disputes.

Key risks: Iran delaying any MoU return until confident enough U.S. strain forecloses renewed strikes, a wager that could just as easily prolong the conflict; the Hormuz fee and lane-control dispute hardening into a lasting sticking point; Houthi and PMF actions outpacing Tehran's control; renewed internationalisation risk via Ukraine-linked incidents or infrastructure strikes; and the U.S. seeking to revise the deal's terms or “finish the job” against the Islamic Republic, alongside an Israel that has so far held back for lack of a game-changing option.

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Executive Summary

The arrest of several prominent political and energy officials in Baghdad’s Greenzone, during the early hours of June 28th, had come as a shock to both Iraqi and international observers. Initial confusion had surrounded the arrests, with Western observers initially claiming that the raids were an effort by the new Prime Minister, Ali al-Zaidi, to contain Iranian influence in Iraq.

However, further review indicates that the operation was not designed to counter Iranian-backed political parties and security forces, but to dismantle a prominent corruption and patronage network that had become large and over-exposed. Findings indicate that the arrests have focused mainly on the Baiji Refinery and Deputy Minister of Oil for Refining Affairs Adnan al-Jumaili.

Al-Jumaili, a long time employee and previous director of the Baiji refinery, exploited the reconstruction of the complex after its liberation from the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS), placing family members in positions of power, influencing contracts, and offering employment in exchange for political support.

Eventually, al-Jumaili’s political and financial networks coming out of the Baiji refinery became too big to ignore, and Prime Minister al-Zaidi, a relative newcomer to Iraqi politics with no public profile, likely targeted al-Jumaili because it was relatively easy to put together a case. 

Additionally, the cross-sectarian nature of the arrests meant that al-Zaidi has avoided any blowback from Iraqi political factions like the Iran-aligned Coordination Framework.  The arrests have been popular among the population, and have improved his and the Iraqi government's public image, both domestically and internationally.

Despite the unprecedented nature of these arrests, their reach has so far stayed limited. Al-Jumaili's network was likely wide-ranging, benefitting multiple major political factions, yet the investigation has avoided any high-profile arrests to date. How far it goes from here will likely be determined by al-Zaidi.

The new head of government is likely to avoid escalation, keeping arrests confined to second- and third-tier political actors. Should al-Zaidi go further, it would mark an unprecedented boost for good governance, but at the risk of dangerously provoking powerful political factions.

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After months of muscle diplomacy, the U.S. and Iran signed a 14-point MoU formally ending hostilities and supposedly lifting maritime traffic restrictions in the Gulf. This interim deal has significantly diminished low-intensity clashes in the Gulf and signals a return to stability for global markets.

It also has the recipe to be truly transformational, not only for Iran but its relations with Washington, turning the Iran war into a blessing in disguise after decades of misalignment and failed diplomacy. Yet the odds for a final deal remain low, and for its successful implementation over the medium term even lower.

The building blocks that the MoU seeks to lay are yet to be consolidated, with Lebanon's ceasefire being frail, the Strait of Hormuz facing continued traffic restrictions, and immediate economic relief for Iran needing a few more steps to fall into place before being achieved.

Should these issues be fixed in an orderly manner, the MoU leaves an extendable 60 days for technical teams to resolve the complex issues of limiting Iran's nuclear programme and lifting multi-layered U.S. sanctions.

The MoU is ultimately a thinly defined roadmap that will face several roadblocks, bringing renewed but manageable uncertainty to global markets.

The chief risks are:

• Israeli presence in Lebanon and overall spoiling
• U.S. backtracking on sanctions relief and nuclear talks, driven by domestic politics
• IRGC desire to prove continued leverage, notably in the Strait of Hormuz

Overview

A European healthcare company pursuing a strategic acquisition in the Algerian market engaged GIG to conduct corporate due diligence on the target entity — a mid-sized Algerian private healthcare group operating across multiple wilayat.

The client had identified the target through an intermediary and conducted preliminary commercial discussions, but had not yet undertaken any independent verification of the target's corporate structure, regulatory standing, or beneficial ownership before entering formal discussions.

The Challenge

Algeria's healthcare sector sits at the intersection of several high-risk due diligence dimensions. The sector is subject to heavy regulatory oversight by the Ministry of Health and the National Agency for Pharmaceutical Products.

Private healthcare operators in Algeria often have informal relationships with government agencies and public hospital structures — providing services, equipment, or personnel on terms that are not always documented — creating both regulatory and reputational risk for a foreign acquirer.

Beneficial ownership in Algerian private healthcare businesses is frequently complex, with founding family structures, nominee shareholder arrangements and undisclosed relationships with foreign capital providers.

What We Did

GIG conducted a corporate due diligence engagement structured around four workstreams.

The first was a corporate structure and ownership analysis, tracing the target's beneficial ownership through Algerian commercial registry records, overseas holding company filings where identified and primary source enquiries through GIG's Algeria network — producing a ownership structure map that extended three layers beyond the formal corporate documentation.

The second workstream assessed the target's regulatory standing with the Ministry of Health, the ANPP, and the relevant wilaya authorities. This included review of published regulatory records supplemented by network enquiries to identify any unpublished enforcement actions, licence conditions, or regulatory disputes not visible through official channels.

The third workstream examined the target's key principal individuals against GIG's standard integrity screening framework, assessing professional history, government relationships, litigation record and reputational standing within the Algerian healthcare sector.

The fourth workstream assessed the target's market position and commercial relationships, including the nature of its contracts with public health facilities, its pharmaceutical supply arrangements, and its relationships with the key institutional actors in the Algerian healthcare regulatory environment.

Outcome

The assessment identified an unresolved regulatory dispute with the ANPP that had not been disclosed during commercial discussions. After receiving independent legal advice on the matter, the client restructured the transaction as a phased investment with a reduced initial stake, with full acquisition conditional on resolution of the regulatory matter.

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Overview

An international aviation services company exploring expansion into Gulf and Middle East markets engaged GIG to conduct a comparative market assessment across Iraq and Oman.

The client needed a clear-eyed analysis of market size, competitive dynamics, regulatory pathways and the practical realities of operating in two markets with very different risk profiles before committing to a capital-intensive regional entry strategy.

The Challenge

Iraq and Oman sit at opposite ends of the operational risk spectrum for foreign aviation services firms, but both present significant information challenges.

Iraq's aviation sector has undergone rapid expansion following the post-ISIS stabilisation period, with new routes, airport upgrades, and growing passenger volumes creating genuine commercial opportunity — but the operating environment remains complex, with multiple government bodies, political interference in procurement, and significant counterparty risk.

Standard market data for the Iraqi aviation sector is unreliable, and the gap between headline opportunity and operational reality is wide.

Oman's Civil Aviation Authority operates a more structured regulatory environment, but the market is contested, with existing regional players holding entrenched positions and close relationships with government procurement decision-makers.

Understanding the real competitive landscape — who holds which contracts, what the renewal dynamics look like, and where genuine entry points exist — required intelligence beyond publicly available information.

What We Did

GIG conducted parallel research tracks in both markets, producing a comparative assessment structured around four dimensions for each: market size and growth trajectory, regulatory and licensing environment, competitive landscape, and operational risk.

For Iraq, GIG combined desk research on the Civil Aviation Authority's published data with primary source interviews with aviation sector operators, government officials involved in airport concession management, and international firms already active in the market.

The research identified the specific procurement cycles most relevant to the client's service lines, the political dynamics shaping airport operator relationships in both Baghdad and the Kurdish Region, and the due diligence requirements for any prospective local partnership.

For Oman, GIG mapped the competitive landscape through primary source enquiries with industry contacts and regulatory officials, identifying the key incumbents, their contract positions, and the relationship dynamics that would shape any competitive tender.

The comparative analysis provided a structured recommendation on sequencing — which market to prioritise, what entry mechanism to pursue in each, and what the realistic commercial timeline looked like given the regulatory and competitive conditions.

Outcome

The client used the assessment to make a board-level decision on regional entry sequencing, prioritising Oman as the first-entry market given the more predictable regulatory environment, while developing a longer-term Iraq strategy calibrated to the procurement cycle intelligence GIG had identified. GIG was retained to provide ongoing monitoring of the relevant tender processes in both markets.

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Overview

A North American firm with operational and contractual exposure across Morocco, Tunisia and Libya engaged GIG to provide advisory support on the challenge of repatriating funds from all three markets.

The client had accumulated significant local currency balances across the three jurisdictions and was encountering distinct but compounding obstacles in each that their in-house compliance and treasury teams were unable to stay on top of.

The Challenge

Fund repatriation from North African markets is rarely a straightforward compliance exercise.

Each country operates its own distinct regulatory framework, administered by institutions with varying degrees of predictability and responsiveness to foreign firms.

In Libya, the challenge centred on the Central Bank of Libya's dual exchange rate structure and the restrictions on foreign currency access through the official banking system. The CBL's foreign currency auction mechanism had become severely constrained, and the client's local accounts were accumulating LYD balances with no clear mechanism for conversion and transfer.

In Morocco, the Office des Changes imposes strict controls on capital outflows by foreign-owned entities, requiring documented justification for any transfer above threshold values and prior authorisation in many cases. The client's repatriation request had been stalled at the approval stage for several months, with the local bank unable to provide clarity on the grounds for delay.

In Tunisia, the Banque Centrale de Tunisie's foreign exchange regime similarly restricts capital account transactions, with repatriation of profits requiring demonstration of tax compliance and regulatory clearance from multiple agencies. The client had been advised by local counsel that the process would take 12-18 months through standard channels.

What We Did

GIG provided a structured advisory engagement across all three markets, running concurrently. In each jurisdiction, the engagement combined regulatory mapping, source-based intelligence and practical pathway analysis.

In Libya, GIG assessed the current state of the CBL's foreign currency allocation mechanisms and identified an alternative channel that provided a more reliable route to USD conversion than the auction system.

GIG provided a structured briefing on the documentary requirements, the institutional relationships required and the risk exposure associated with each route.

In Morocco, GIG engaged its regulatory networks to understand the specific basis for the delay on the client's Office des Changes application and identified a procedural gap in the supporting documentation that was causing the hold. GIG produced an advisory note on the corrected documentation package and provided guidance on the appropriate institutional contact point for the revised submission.

In Tunisia, GIG mapped the full regulatory pathway for profit repatriation under the BCT framework, identified the sequence of agency clearances required, and assessed which elements were genuinely time-bound versus which were subject to discretionary acceleration.

GIG provided the client with a prioritised action plan and connected them with specialist local counsel in Tunis experienced in navigating the BCT process.

Outcome

The client successfully initiated repatriation processes in all three markets within the engagement period. The Morocco submission, resubmitted with the corrected documentation, received authorisation within six weeks. The Libya and Tunisia processes continued beyond the engagement period but with a clear pathway and reduced uncertainty.

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Our Iran coverage is produced for portfolio managers, commodity traders and corporate risk teams who need analysis that goes beyond headline news — covering regime dynamics, nuclear negotiations, oil market implications and the downstream effects of geopolitical developments on business exposure.

Produced by analysts with active networks across western, eastern, and southern Libya, these reports have become essential reading for commodity traders, energy companies, diplomatic missions and financial institutions with Libyan exposure.

• Weekly & Monthly Reporting
• Primary Source Analysis
• Rapid Turnaround

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• Accelerate growth

Overview

A major international construction group exploring entry into the Libyan market commissioned a comprehensive strategic assessment of the economic environment, infrastructure investment pipeline, and the operational risk profile of working across Libya's divided political geography.

The Challenge

Libya represents a significant infrastructure opportunity, but the market's complexity is often underestimated by firms approaching it for the first time.

The political division between Tripoli-aligned western institutions and the eastern administration creates distinct procurement environments, regulatory frameworks and risk exposures.

The client needed a clear-eyed assessment of where opportunities existed, what the realistic operational requirements were and how the risk profile compared between regions.

What We Did

Libya Desk delivered a structured strategic report organised around four areas.

First, an economic overview covering Libya's fiscal position, the role of oil revenues in public expenditure and the drivers of infrastructure spending across key sectors including housing, roads, water and energy infrastructure.

Second, a pipeline assessment identifying active and anticipated public procurement processes relevant to the client's capabilities, including the institutional actors responsible for commissioning and awarding contracts.

Third, a partner and procurement landscape analysis covering local content requirements, the role of intermediaries, and the characteristics of credible local partners in each region.

Fourth, a comparative risk matrix assessing the operational, security, regulatory, and reputational risk profile of working in western versus eastern Libya, with scenario analysis for key risk factors.

Outcome

The report was delivered within the agreed timeframe and supported the client's internal decision-making process on Libya market entry.

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Overview

A European firm conducting acquisition due diligence on a Libyan-linked entity required independent reputational and integrity assessment of key principals and associated companies.

Standard database checks had returned limited results. The client needed a deeper assessment drawing on in-country intelligence.

The Challenge

Due diligence on Libyan entities presents particular difficulties.

Corporate structures are often opaque, beneficial ownership is frequently obscured through nominee arrangements and the sanctions environment — spanning UN, EU, US, and UK designations — creates material compliance exposure that is not always visible through conventional screening tools.

Reputational risk in the Libyan context also requires understanding individuals' relationships with armed groups, political factions and state institutions in ways that go beyond standard database coverage.

What We Did

Libya Desk produced a structured enhanced due diligence report covering the key principals and entities identified by the client.

The assessment drew on open-source intelligence, Libya Desk's proprietary database of Libyan political, commercial, and security actors, and discreet in-country source enquiries.

The report addressed corporate structure and beneficial ownership, sanctions and designations screening, reputational and political exposure, and known or alleged involvement in irregular financial activity.

Material risks identified during the assessment were summarised for the client's legal and compliance teams.

Outcome

The findings were incorporated directly into the client's deal structure and risk mitigation planning.

Several risk factors surfaced during the assessment had not been identified through the client's prior screening process.

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Overview

An international oil services company preparing to establish operations in Libya engaged us for end-to-end market entry support.

The client had limited prior exposure to the Libyan market and required structured intelligence to navigate its distinct regulatory, commercial and political environment.

The Challenge

Operating in Libya requires managing two parallel institutional realities split across western and eastern Libya.

Partners, regulatory pathways and risk profiles differ substantially between the two.

The client needed to understand both before committing to a market entry strategy.

What We Did

Libya Desk provided a phased advisory engagement covering four workstreams.

First, we delivered a regulatory pathway analysis mapping the formal and informal requirements for establishing oil services operations, including licensing, local content obligations and the role of key institutional gatekeepers.

Second, we identified and vetted a longlist of potential local partners, assessing their commercial track record, political affiliations and reputational standing.

Third, we prepared the client's senior team for a series of engagements with NOC counterparts, providing structured briefings on the individuals involved, their priorities and the sensitivities to navigate.

Fourth, we provided ongoing advisory support as the client progressed through negotiations, responding to emerging developments in real time.

Outcome

The client successfully established an operational presence in Libya. Libya Desk continued to provide advisory support through the initial operating period.

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Overview

A major commodity trading firm with active exposure to Libyan crude required continuous, forward-looking assessment of risks to production and export infrastructure.

The client's trading desk needed to anticipate supply disruptions before they moved prices, not react to them after the fact.

The Challenge

Libya's production environment is uniquely volatile. Output at key fields and loading terminals is routinely affected by a combination of political disputes between rival institutions, armed group activity, labour grievances and externally-driven geopolitical pressures.

Standard news monitoring is insufficient. By the time disruptions reached wire services, the market had already moved.

What We Did

Libya Desk delivered a standing weekly intelligence service and risk matrix covering the full range of threats to Libyan production and export capacity.

Each brief assessed the current threat environment at specific fields and terminals, tracked the political and security dynamics most likely to generate near-term disruption, and provided a forward-looking risk outlook calibrated to the client's specific exposure.

Reporting drew on Libya Desk's in-country source network, proprietary monitoring of political and security developments, and analysis of the institutional dynamics at the National Oil Corporation and relevant government bodies.

Outcome

The client maintained the engagement on a rolling retainer basis.

The service enabled the client to build Libyan supply risk into pricing decisions ahead of market-moving events on multiple occasions during the engagement period.

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Overview

A multinational company with significant operational exposure in Libya required structured monitoring of Libya's foreign exchange environment and forward-looking analysis of the risks to currency stability – with direct implications for procurement costs, cash repatriation and financial planning.

The Challenge

Libya operates a dual exchange rate environment in which the official USD/LYD rate set by the Central Bank of Libya diverges materially from the parallel market rate available to most commercial operators.

The spread between the two — and the risk of sudden devaluations or restrictions on foreign currency access — is driven by a combination of oil revenue flows, political pressure on the CBL, and the fiscal positions of rival government institutions.

Understanding where the rate is heading requires intelligence on political dynamics, not just macroeconomic data.

What We Did

Libya Desk provided a monthly foreign exchange monitoring and analysis service.

Each brief covered the current official and parallel market rates and the spread between them, an assessment of the CBL's foreign currency reserve position and its political constraints, identification of the near-term political and fiscal triggers most likely to generate rate movement or access restrictions, and a set of forward-looking scenarios with probability weightings and implications for the client's operational and financial planning.

The service also included ad hoc alerts when significant developments warranted immediate client notification outside the regular reporting cycle.

Outcome

The engagement was maintained on a rolling basis.

The scenario analysis proved accurate in anticipating two significant parallel market rate movements during the engagement period, enabling the client to adjust procurement and treasury operations ahead of the shifts.

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