Overview
Syria’s prospects for a peaceful transition looked unexpectedly bright when Assad fell at the end of 2024. The regime had collapsed without major bloodshed in a ten days offensive, pro-Assad forces disbanded with little resistance, and the country avoided large-scale sectarian violence in the first months.
However, events in the last year have complicated that picture. For most international operators, Syria is a restricted, risk-monitoring market where compliance, humanitarian exemptions, and indirect exposure (suppliers, logistics, neighboring hubs) are the primary concerns.
Political Landscape
Syria is de facto divided among:
- Government of Syria (GoS) controlling major cities and the coast;
- Autonomous Administration/Northeast (AANES) with Syrian Democratic Forces;
- Opposition-held Northwest with varied armed and administrative actors;
- Periodic external military footprints (Russia, Iran-linked groups, Türkiye, U.S. in the northeast).
The central state retains international representation, but governance is highly securitized and sanctions-constrained. Front lines are relatively static, yet localized escalation, cross-border strikes, and great-power dynamics periodically shift risk. Rule of law and contract enforcement are inconsistent; informal networks mediate much commercial activity.
Social Context
Pre-war population exceeded 21 million; displacement and emigration have reshaped demographics. Millions are internally displaced or refugees in Türkiye, Lebanon, Jordan, Iraq, and Europe. Urban centers (Damascus, Aleppo, Homs, Latakia) suffered major damage; basic services (power, water, health, education) are degraded in many areas. Youth unemployment, poverty, and aid dependence are widespread. Social fabrics are resilient yet strained, with community and diaspora networks critical to survival and commerce.
Economic Environment
The economy has contracted sharply since 2011. Key characteristics today:
- Sanctions & Financial Isolation: U.S./EU/UK measures, Caesar Act, terrorism-related designations constrain banking, trade, shipping, insurance.
- Currency & Inflation: severe depreciation, multi-rate FX, high inflation, and dollarization behaviors.
- Sectors: agriculture (wheat, olives), limited hydrocarbons (mostly in northeast), small-scale manufacturing, reconstruction-adjacent services in pockets, and cross-border trade with neighbors.
- State & Informal Economies: pervasive informality, rent-seeking, and fragmented customs/border regimes increase costs and compliance risk.
Key Challenges
- Comprehensive sanctions and export controls; complex licensing/exemptions
- Territorial fragmentation and shifting local authorities
- Weak rule of law, corruption, and high counterparty risk
- Security incidents (airstrikes, IEDs), criminality, and kidnapping risk
- Infrastructure degradation (power, fuel, logistics) and chronic FX shortages
Opportunities
- Risk monitoring & scenario planning for regional exposure (Levant, Türkiye, Iraq)
- Humanitarian and early-recovery compliance support (licensing, vendor screening, route feasibility)
- Supply-chain mapping to avoid sanctioned or designated entities
- Border trade intelligence (informal tariffs, choke points, seasonal pathways)
- Sector watch on agriculture inputs, fuel availability, and reconstruction signals (subject to compliance)
Services Provided in Syria
- Geopolitical Risk Assessments
- Strategic Advisory (compliance-first scoping)
- Market Entry (policy/compliance scoping only)
- Stakeholder Mapping
- Scenario Planning
- Thematic Research
- Litigation Support (desk-based/open-source intelligence)
(Due diligence and on-the-ground investigations are not offered in Syria.)
Talk to an Analyst
Our compliance-first intelligence helps you monitor Syria-related risk, map indirect exposures, and plan scenarios without breaching sanctions constraints.